In less than three years, Mali experienced two coups. But the roots of Mali’s problems don’t come from Mnangagwa or Mugabe, even though people might think so. The only link to these leaders is their experience with military takeovers. The real connection is the strong hold on power, leading to a tyrannical political system where the party and the state are one, like with Zanu PF in Zimbabwe.

Mali and Zimbabwe share a common trait: the presence of Zanu PF, a tyrannical force. This party is led by a second secretary who took control from the first secretary. It’s said he has even planned assassinations to remove potential threats. This situation shows that Zanu PF relies on tyranny and personalization. This personalization creates division, making the party unstable.

This unstable situation sets the stage for a military coup. Mugabe’s downfall came after years of centralizing power and trying to pass it to his wife. This kind of one-party rule aims to ensure a smooth handover to a chosen successor when the leader steps down.

What drives this dangerous game? Avoiding accountability and transparency is key. Leaving the top position in Zanu PF to a family member, like a son or wife, helps keep power in the family. This new leader, usually a vice president, continues the legacy. The party’s supporters, always loyal, support this undemocratic move, just like they did in the 2018 elections.

Where does Mnangagwa fit into this complex picture? Power-hungry former military leaders, like Chiwenga and Valerio Sibanda, want the presidency. They feel entitled because of their role in the liberation struggle. Their ambition is strong and dangerous.

But these leaders want more than just power. They want to avoid punishment for their crimes, such as human rights violations, including beatings, rapes, and killings. These crimes keep Zanu PF in control and give the military leaders a path to the presidency. Mnangagwa’s grip on Zanu PF blocks their ambitions, making a coup likely, similar to what happened in Mali. Mnangagwa, like Mugabe, could be forced out.

Mnangagwa’s attempt to extend Malaba’s term further fuels coup talks. This move shows his tight hold on power, a trait he shares with Mugabe.

The public’s anger at Zanu PF’s corruption, like the Draxgate scandal, adds to the tension. This scandal cost the state nearly US$500 million. Events like the Arab Spring and Sudan’s removal of Bashir show the power of public uprisings, which Zanu PF fears.

The military, a key part of the regime, fears the chaos of popular uprisings that could endanger its interests. Avoiding punishment for human rights abuses in Gukurahundi, Chiadzwa’s diamond fields, and election violence is hard under a new, people-driven government. Such a government would not tolerate the party’s corruption. The military might feel it has no choice but to remove Mnangagwa to protect itself.As the situation changes, a public uprising is coming. Past lessons show that the people won’t be fooled again. Mnangagwa and the military must prepare for the consequences of their actions.